You want some action (see comments 6,8,10)!? Consider it laid! I hereby bet Sid $100 that in the 2008 presidential election, the national popular vote difference will be 5% or greater. That is, it must be 52.5% to 47.5% or greater.
I’ll put in one weasel term – the bets off if Ron Paul runs as an independent.
Ooch, 53-47 the other way if Hillary is nominated. That’s a scenario I don’t want to consider, but your consolation for 4 years of potential misery will be a winning bet.
In the NY area (where I am), the media coverage does not dismiss a Bloomberg run. Especially if it’s a Rudy-Hillary race — both have NY ties, both have huge baggage — Bloomberg could slip in there if that were the case.
And I agree with your assessment that Paul will hurt the GOP more than the Dems. His supporters — most likely to be GOP’ers — are very enthusiastic and going to support and vote for him regardless of whether they are “wasting their vote”. You gotta think Dems are more wary of “vote wasting” after 2000 — as shown by their minimal support of Nader in ’04.
BTW, clearly the Muttroxia readership is energized for the election!
* If Hillary wins, it could go 53-47 the other way. I didn’t say the Dems needed to win by 5%, just that the winner would.
* I accept a tough road if Hillary wins, that’s part of the risk.
* Bloomberg won’t run. I don’t see it happening.
* I don’t agree with the “Paul hurts Dems” assessment, I just haven’t thought about it enough. At a first take, I think he hurts the GOP more…
Muttrox, yer gonna lose. You are getting all pumped up with poll numbers, and you know it will be razor thin (popular and electoral) come November. And I agree — if Hillary wins, with consistently 50% negative approval ratings, it’s hard to see her pulling off 53% of the vote.
No Bloomberg weasel term?
by the way, that’s a big weasel term. Paul was asked point blank in the YouTube debate about this and he refused to say he wasn’t going to run as an independent. Implication of your caveat is that you agree with the “Paul hurts Dems” assessment or does it just add an element of uncertainty that makes you wet the bed?
If Hillary gets the nomination you’re totally fucked…you know that, right? And fix the 404 error for the MP3 on your previous post, you John Mayer loving pussy….your body’s such a wonderland, Muttrox….