I was planning to write about how Obama has it wrapped up. He has won more states, more voters, and more delegates than Hillary, and by leads that won’t be given up.
And then I listened to his speech, “A More Perfect Union.” I hit my tipping point and then some. Just like everyone else who has heard it, I am captivated. By the content, by the respect for the listener, the tone, the honesty, everything. I just went in the tank for Obama.
It’s over.
Agreed that the Obama campaign had a better organization to prepare for the caucus under the given caucus rules, but that doesn’t mean that the caucus rules are fair. I am not saying that Obama cheated, just that the caucus system is undemocratic to begin with. When peer pressure plays a predominant role in deciding who a large percentage of people vote for, that is not fair.
Consider the fact that Hillary lost the female vote in the pivotal first contest in Iowa. Do you think there are actually more women who support Edwards and Obama than Hillary in Iowa? Definitely not. But there are more men who support Edwards and Obama, and in a state like Iowa (not exactly a modern, progressive place) women vote for who their husbands vote for. The reason? Your vote is public. And in a small town in Iowa (every single tiny precinct has its own caucus, so it’s not like they merge a whole bunch into one big one) everyone knows everyone. Very few women are willing to stand in front of the whole town and walk over to the Hillary corner while her husband stands in the Obama or Edwards corner.
Hillary can’t win this the democratic route, she’s already too far behind. The only way she can win is to make some argument that will swing a large proportion of supers. That argument doesn’t exist.
The points you brought up are more or less true, but not true enough. You can come up with counterarguments to all of them without much effort. Obama wasn’t on the Florida ballot. Caucus states count just as much, you can’t just dismiss them and say she would have won if they were primaries. Getting wins in primaries doesn’t mean winning the state in November.
You’ll probably have more rebuttals to these, but the point is that your argument isn’t strong enough to convince the supers. Her arguments have some merit, but not enough to tip the balance. And that’s without even getting into the arguments that favor Obama (like the many GOP voters who went for Hilary in the primary, or the new voters he’s brought out, or the national polls favoring him vs. McCain, that so many voters will never ever vote for Hillary, etc.).
FSC, this whole “sloppy, unfair, undemocratic” stuff is complete bunk. It’s the system, and Obama has simply thumped her in terms of the organization it takes to win these contents. Their strategists recognized the system, developed a strategy consistent with the ground rules, and have executed that strategy very well. The Clinton team simply thought they didn’t have to compete in these contents and their hubris has now come back to bite them. Your argument is akin to saying that the three point rule isn’t fair.
Supers can support whoever they want, first of all. But they are justified in supporting her to make up for the voters who chose her overwhelmingly in Florida, yet whose votes apparentely will not be counted.
And after PA, I don’t think his popular vote lead will be very significant, if at all.
Also, it is not the mere fact that he has won more states, but which states he has won. He has won almost every single one of the sloppy, undemocratic and unfair caucuses. Almost all of Hillary’s wins have been Primaries, and she is the overwhelming favorite in the key battleground states like Ohio and Florida, but also the must-win traditional blue states like CA, NY, NJ, MA. She also managed narrow victories in swing states like NV and NM that could have been the difference in 2004.
Agree with you about the speech- tremendous. What politician talks like that? He even had white people pegged pretty well.
Unfortunately, I think he took a mild hit on the whole episode. The speech was essentially preaching to the choir. He didn’t convert anyone to his side (While I initially had a mild preference for Hillary, I’d easily vote for either one in the general). Also, I think you’d have to take the time to listen to the whole thing to be convinced/impressed. I think having race as an explicit factor taps into white resentment and is a net negative for him with the white lower-middle class. As evidence: 1)Hillary is now polling stronger than he is, which hasn’t happened in months; 2) A significant percentage of Hillary supporters claim that they would support McCain over Obama in the general, but the reverse is not true.
I still think Hillary is a long shot at this point, but who knows where it goes from here- the news cycle is so fast that it seems impossible to predict what things will look like next month.
FSC,
It’s over refers to the primary, not the general election. Sorry if I wasn’t clear about that. So McCain doesn’t matter yet.
And this isn’t about who would make a better president. I think Edwards beats either of them, but that doesn’t matter anymore either.
I don’t see how you think Hilary can win at this point. How can you get the numbers to balance? Why would superdelegates support Hilary? If more states support Obama, if more votesr support Obama, if more delegates support Obama, how can you make the case that they should support Hillary? Is it about winning the general election — because every poll that I have ever seen shows Obama doing better than Hilary against McCain. And Obama has been turning out new voters at an incredible pace. I just don’t see the argument for any superdelegate to support Hilary.
Make the case!
It was also “over” right before New Hampshire voted. It was “over” before Super Tuesday, when Obama was going to win CA, NY, NJ and MA, until he lost all of them. And it was really supposed to be “over” on March 4th, when he was going to win OH and TX and finally seal the deal…until he didn’t. If Obama can’t close when he’s got a lead in the bottom of the ninth with 2 outs and nobody on, on 3 separate occassions, what makes you think he has a prayer of beating McCain.
I heard the speech. I also read it. I’ve seen him in person at least a dozen times. And I remain uncaptivated. My conclusion is the same as it always was: David Axlerod is a brilliant political strategist, Barack Obama is a great public speaker, and Hillary Clinton is the best candidate to be the next commander in chief.
In about 4 weeks, Obama will get pummeled in Pennsylvania. His lead in North Carolina has disapeared. The nominee will be decided at the convention, and no amount of poetic speeches can change the fact that neither candidate will have the necessary number of delegates by the night of August 25th when the convention begins.
not a Muttrox endorsement!!! It’s Kryptonite. Run, Obama, run! 🙂