Patriots Predictions

I predict 10-6. 11-5. No, 10-6. Heck with it, 11-5. Why so optimistic?

1) We are an offensive powerhouse. We set every single record there was to set last year. Even if you take away 30% of our points, we’re still very good. Remember when we won our first eight games by an average margin of 20 points (or something absurd like that)?
2) We are a system team. Tom Brady is a system quarterback. The team is not build around Tom Brady’s arm, it’s built around his brain and the brain of everyone on the team. This is an easier team to take over than a team that relies on individual brilliance. Furthermore, Cassell has been studying with Brady for quite a few years now, he knows the system well.
3) Easy schedule. We have the easiest schedule in the NFL this year.
4) We’re already 1-0.

I’d better stop, I’m talking myself into 14-2.

Go Pats!

Links o’ Interest

(I also added a couple more onto the political links from a couple days ago…)

Seth MacFarlane’s Cavalcade of Comedy

Mickey Mantle. All class (apparently true)

Baby gets the evil look on

More cowbell, please!

Never ask the Internet for help

Another Seinfeld/Gates ad, the long version

5 real world criminals who were supervillians

You just made my list! (Very funny)

10 Women who would have been better VP picks

Charges Filed Against Bed, Bath & Beyond Manager Who Refused To Allow 911 Call

Beautiful Flash Clock

What Wikipedia is not

10 Amazing Physics Videos

70 year old color photos

Mott’s gets tricky with labeling. I admire this.

YouTomb – See all the videos that got pulled from YouTube

Why Mike Tyson isn’t in my top 10 all-time boxers

102 year old man explains English spelling.

Wikipedia: Paradoxes and Unusual Articles

Political Links o’ Interest

bolling

An interesting reaction to Palin’s first interview.

Andrew Sullivan gives up on McCain (no surprise, but well-said)

US Churches are getting ready to fight for their right to talk politics. But should they be tax-exempt then? Legal battle a brewin’

Approval Voting
(I introduced this to my book club. It’s much better than standard voting.)

What does the Freddie/Fannie bailout mean to you?

Rising Income Inequality in America, and how it favors the Democrats. A comprehensive analysis from David Frum… and a few corrections

Scott Adams on the Palin pick (thanks Woodson).

I suspect this is completely unfair. But it’s funny. The Sarah Palin Pregnancy Decision Guide

mlk

Poker Update

Another great outing. I’m starting to feel good about my game again. Once again my name strikes fear into their hearts.

Early on I caught a nut flush on the river, took most of one guys chips. The very next hand I caught the nut flush on the flop, took down another huge pot. Both hands I checked on every card (which no one ever expects from me). A few hands later I caught A-A and took down a medium-pot (not large because the flop had a straight draw on it – I put in a ludicrously large bet to scare them off). I was in good shape.

Am I proud of that? No. Anyone can get lucky cards. I’m proud of (1) Sticking to my plan and bullying from the big stack. It’s really fun when it’s working. Three people in pre-flop, I raise big. With 7-2. And they all fold. (2) Calling all-ins correctly. I was more willing to call them. I caught three people bluffing or with weak hands and knocked them out. For once I didn’t sit back and wait for players to eliminate each other. I actively eliminated them myself.

Entering heads up play, I was up about 17K to 3K with the blinds at 400-800. I had A-J, pushed him all in, and he caught a flush on the river. Arrgh! A couple hands later I had J-7, the flop was J-x-x. This time I wanted to get all his money in the pot. I checked, he bet, I called. Turn was the same thing. River was the same thing. With nothing higher than a jack on the board, I put him all in (there was ~10K in the pot and he only had another 1K anyhow). He had a pair of 10s, but the river card was a 10. My slowplaying cost me the hand. But I don’t think I misplayed it. My goal is to knock him out and I played it correctly to do that.

The blinds went up to 500-1000 and we were essentially tied. I vowed to get super-aggressive. I did. I raised almost every hand. I was soon up to 15K again. With K-8 suited I raised the blind to 3000. He went all-in. Of course I called, his J-9 didn’t get lucky. Ah, winning is fun.

Tonight: $92
Running Total: $208

Bed Bath & Beyond User Interface

Recently I shopped off the Bed Bath & Beyond website. It was a pretty good experience. Up until the end I was going to give them a hearty thumbs up, but then they blew it.

Good: Website want to get your information. It’s worth real money to them. But they don’t want you to drop out of the purchase because you are so annoyed at their attempts to get your information. BB&B did it just right. Very early on there was the usual screen to create an account to purchase the item. But they had a prominent choice to not create an account. They stated very clearly that you did not have to have an account to shop, and that you would have another chance at the end to create one if you wanted.

They held to their word. Telling the consumer up front builds confidence in the process. Being truthful about the process build confidence that BB&B can be trusted to keep your information private. BB&B can use their easy purchase funnel as a way to convince consumers that are good folks. This experience left me with a rare good taste in my mouth, that of a website that put the consumer first.

Bad: And then they blew it. It came time to do the money. As with most sites, there were a few screens worth. Gift wrapping, did you forget anything, any gift certificates, enter your credit card information, etc. The screen were you click to actually pay the money showed the amount, but didn’t break out the detail. Specifically, they had added in the tax but hadn’t informed you that they had done that and hadn’t displayed the tax amount for you to see. Suddenly the cost seemed to have gone up $15. Coincidentally, my tax was about the same amount as shipping & handling. The screen about shipping had merely said what is was going to do, didn’t say it was doing it, so it looked like they had double-charged me for shipping. I had to call customer support to understand the final bill, which rather defeats the point of doing it all through the web.

You should never show the final cost, or any of the steps along the way, without displaying all the detail that builds up to it.

Links o’ Interest

It’s a short list, but I wanted to get the political ones in here before they become even more obsolete!

Jon Stewart and Steven Colbert on the Sarah Palin pick

McCains VP Short List

Conservative commentators on MSNBC discuss Sarah Palin after the cameras go off

The new Google browser Chrome (in comic book form)

The Abraham Simpson guide to being miserable

What are you going to die from? New charts from the NCI.

Police caught on film.

I doubt this, and yet I’m fascinated. Musical tastes correlated with personality traits.

Cool drawings from Russia. No idea what they mean.

One of a Kind Recording

How Not to Write a Book: Connie Willis’ “DOOMSDAY BOOK”

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On the advice of my brother, I bought this paperback. He knows that I often wonder how long I could survive if I magically time-travelled to the medieval days. Could I teach the medievals some basic science that would vastly improve their lives before they burnt me at the stake for being a godless heretic? Could I convince a king to turn his energies to making sure his subjects were literate, rather than waging war on his neighbors, or would he have me executed for spreading the dangerous idea that monarchs are answerable to their subjects?

The book is 578 pages long. It took 6 years to write. The front cover quotes the NY Times saying it’s a “tour de force”. It won the Hugo and Nebula awards in 1992, which would make you think it’s a great book. What a fool you’d be to think that! It stank worse than a 7th grader’s gym shorts.

The book is basically the story of a grad student historian in the year 2050, who goes back in time to study medieval life in 1320. But as soon as she goes through the “net” to the past, the net operator suddenly collapses with a highly infectious disease. They’re supposed to re-open the net in 2 weeks to bring the historian back – but with the university quarantined and no other net operators available, what are they going to do? She’ll be trapped in the past forever! Meanwhile, the historian arrives in the past with a similar debilitating infection. Now she can’t remember where the drop point was, so how’s she going to get back to it for the rendezvous in 2 weeks?

OK, so far, that’s a decent plot. But here’s where it all goes wrong.

– The net operator collapses on page 24.
– The historian is clearly ill on page 80.

AND THEN NOTHING ELSE HAPPENS FOR 310 PAGES!!!!

Folks, I’m not exaggerating, it’s 310 pages of the university staff going back-and-forth to hospitals trying to figure out what the disease is while their phones keep malfunctioning, intercut with the historian girl spending all her time in bed trying to figure out how to ask someone where she was found without blowing her cover. Holy cow. What’s your reward for slogging through these 310 pages of boredom? NOTHING. The plot doesn’t move forward. The characters don’t develop. All we get is boring minutae.

Here’s the rules you broke, Connie Willis. Pay attention.

    1. Your protagonist must be active. They drive the story. Having the historian laid up in bed for 200 pages doesn’t make them active!

    2. Have meaningful conflict in your book! “I forgot where the drop is” carries you for a chapter or two –
    not for 310 pages. Especially when your audience suspects that your historian might not be so bummed about spending her whole life in the time period she’s obsessed with.

    3. Write characters we care about. I don’t care about the professor because he is a 1-dimensional character. So is the historian… and the doctor… and the medieval people… and everyone else around them! They are cardboard people. So I don’t really care if they get what they want in the story.

    4. Don’t tell me how to feel by having the characters think it. If someone says something dumb to the professor, Willis invariably writes “how stupid, he thought.” Really? I know it was stupid! You don’t need to have your character think it for me to know it. Give me some credit, lady!

FINALLY, around page 367, we finally confirm what the professor has been worried about this whole time (something the audience has been praying for…) The historian didn’t get to the right year. In fact, she’s 20 years late – right when the Black Plague was roaring across Europe. Holy cow! She’s in the middle of the plague with no medicine and people are gonna start dropping like flies – that’s cool! But really, you’re gonna make me wait 310 pages for that? At page 367, I DON’T CARE BECAUSE I GOT BORED IN THE MIDDLE 290 PAGES!!!! I WANT THEM ALL TO DIE SO THIS BOOK WILL END!

Which leads us to rule 5, which is very similar to rule 2:

    5. Have meaningful AND CONTINUAL conflict in your story! Don’t introduce your little conflict (“I don’t know where the drop site is”) on page 80 and think you’re covered for the rest of the book. Your real punch-in-the-gut conflict didn’t show up until page 367 – “I’m surrounded by people with the plague and we have no medicine!” That should have happened a lot sooner – maybe around page 150? And in between these 2 mini-revelations, each scene needs to have some real tension in it. I can only read about how hard it is for little Ms. Historian to talk without coughing a few times before I lose interest. Or how Mr. Professor keeps trying to dodge one student’s stereotypical protective mother. And you played these games for… how many pages?

This book should have topped out at around 250-300 pages. Those would be pages of regular-size type, thank you, not the itty-bitty type your bloated tome currently uses.

In very un-Goldman-like fashion, I actually STOPPED READING THIS BOOK. It’s true. There’s very few books I have started and not finished, so it takes a lot to get on this list. You made it, DOOMSDAY BOOK.

Please allow me to suggest a good tool to help you with your next work, Connie Willis. Study it hard if you want a 2nd chance from me.

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PS – actually, I’m lying. There’s nothing Connie can do to get a 2nd chance from me. Even if she memorizes STORY cover-to-cover.

Fantasy Football

I got dragged into fantasy football. I don’t really know what I’m doing, but I think I have a decent team. What do y’all think? (if you’re in the league, keep yer yap shut!)

Player
Brees, Drew QB NO
Rivers, Philip QB SD
Gore, Frank RB SF
Turner, Michael RB ATL
Driver, Donald WR GB
Jennings, Greg WR GB
Welker, Wes WR NE
Olsen, Greg TE CHI
Bulger, Marc QB STL
Ryan, Matt QB ATL
Rhodes, Dominic RB IND
Taylor, Fred RB JAC
Gage, Justin WR TEN
Miller, Zach TE OAK

The State of the Election (538.com)

According to the national polls this has been a close race, only slightly in Obama’s favor. You should be wondering how much the national poll matters. What does the situation look like if you go to each state and see where it’s electoral votes are polling and add it all up?

Ladies and Gentlemen, one of the best election sites out there, www.fivethirtyeight.com. You can look that up and play with all kinds of different possibilities to your hearts content. A dream tool for the amateur politnik.

Oh, by the way? Current projections are Obama 310, McCain 227. The race isn’t nearly as close as you think.

Sarah Palin: What do you Think?

What do y’all think?

I guess my overall take is that it reflects very poorly on McCain. McCain made a horrible pick, and made it without thinking about it or caring about the consequences. This is not a good sign for someone who’s campaign is based on judgment.

Another blogger used this analogy. Both Obama and McCain gambled. Obama played poker. He figured out his odds, weighed the circumstances, and made a move. It might not work, but it’s the best play he can make. McCain played craps, he just rolled the dice and hoped things would work out. Which seems like a better character trait?

Poker Update

I played an error-free game.

That feels so good to say. I’ll say it again, because I’ve never been able to say it before. I played an error-free game. I can’t think of one play that was a mistake.

In the first two hours, I only showed my cards twice. Every other time I folded, or bet big enough to push other people off the hand. That was the big difference. Instead of value-betting non-premium hands I was putting in large bets and getting other people out of the way so I never had to see if my non-premium hands (low and middle pairs, K-J suited, etc.) would hold up. The only two times I showed my hand were both chops with the same person. So two hours in, no one had seen me lose.

When we down to five people, I had a bad luck run. There three coin flip hands in a row (2 overcards vs. a pair) and I lost all three. That’s unfortunate. I was right to be in the hand each time though. I fought back. With three players, I checked the option with 9-3. The flop was K-9-5. With middle pair I made a good-sized bet. He put me all in. It wasn’t much of a decision, a fold would have crippled me and I was getting 3-1 on my money. He had 9-6, his hand held up and I finished in 3rd.

Never been so pleased with my own performance to finish in third. This was my best poker playing since I started blogging it.

Running Total: $116 (three winning weeks in a row…)