Poker Update (partial)

21 players. $25 buy-in. Very strict house rules. Looks like we’re playing real poker tonight folks! I’ll stick to the notable hands.

I get A-J. I raise the 50-100 blinds up to 300. Someone else raises it another 500. Two more people call. I have decent pot odds with a decent hand, I call also. The flop is K-K-10. Three people bet 500 to me. Hmm. I think someone must have a king. So the only winner for me is a Queen which would give me the straight. Four outs, two cards left, that’s somewhere around 18% odds. 500 into a 4500+ pot… I think I’m supposed to do it. But I don’t trust the pot odds, so I fold. The turn is (of course) a Queen. I let out a huge swear. One player goes all in, the other two call him. The river is another Queen. The remaining two players go all-in with the little they have left. Everyone turns over their cards. The two big stacks both had K-10, for full houses of Kings over Queens. The smaller all-in turns over a pair of pocket Queens for a monster four-of-a-kind! He becomes unquestioned king of the table for the next few hours. I suddenly feel very lucky I folded as early as I did.

It’s a loose night. It’s very hard to get people to fold. Our table has two or three people who will call any pre-flop bet, and will casually bet most of their money with absolutely nothing. My philosophy is when they are loose, you should be tight. I don’t play many hands. The hands I do play I often steal pots on.

There are 4 minutes left for rebuys. I have about 2,200 to an average stack of 3,000 or so. I decide to play super-aggressive. I raise 500 pre-flop with K-6, another 500 post-flop, then he folds. The same thing next hand, I end up making 1,500 profit when a 9 pairs up. With buy-ins over, I have about 4,000. Nice. There have been 12 buy-ins, so there are 33 total stacks out there. I have roughly the average stack.

Now blinds have gotten up to 200-400. With A-4 suited I raise the blinds on a semi-bluff to 1,150. (I like to vary the 3x bet by just a little here and there, it sows confusion.) The big stack (4-of-a-kind guy) raises another 2,000 over that. I think he’s full of it, but with only 3,500 left reluctantly fold. I would have been effectively all-in, I’m not ready to risk the night on my read of him.

Twenty minutes later I get 4-4. I raise to 1,200. Again, he raises another 2,000. I think he remembers that other hand and is just trying to bully me with the big stack. And even if he has two big cards I’m a coin flip. I instantly call (hoping my insta-call will intimidate him into a fold). The flop is 4-x-x, giving me my trips. That’s a nice break for me! I go all in, his pot odds make him call. He turns over K-Q suited, I double up through him. I am suddenly a strong second place in chips at our table.

(He’s one of those loose players. K-Q suited is a fine hand to start with. It’s a fine hand to raise pre-flop. But to come over the top with a re-raise? These guys don’t know semi-bluff, they just figure they have something half-decent, they’re going to go all the way and see what happens.)

Break is called. It’s 12:10. I call home to see if the babysitter can stay later. She can’t. Oh no! What do I do? Can I pay her, lock up the house and come back? It’s only two blocks away, what can happen in the early hours of Sunday morning to a locked house in a safe neighborhood? It takes me a few minutes to realize how stupid I’m being. I can’t leave three young children alone in the house. I reluctantly turn my chips over to a proxy friend and come home.

So here’s the situation as I left. Ten players left. Top seven finish in the money, the top three get really good payoffs. The average stack is somewhere around 8,000. I have 12,000. We’ve just combined into one table. The proxy I picked is a conservative player. Since there are ten people, some of them are very loose players, and some of them are very very drunk*, I figure if he just plays premium hands and nothing else we should finish in the money. I’ll keep you posted with an update as soon as I know.

* There’s drinking to have a little more fun while playing, and there’s just out and drunken idiocy. Dude, you’re fifty years old. You’re trading shots back and forth like liquor’s going out of style. When I tell you it’s 400 to you, stop replying with “What’s the bet?” I just told you. Stop asking who’s in, look and see who has cards. Stop taking two full minutes to decide and fold 10-4, and yes I know what you have because you hold your cards up so I can see them and I already told you once I can see them so I’m not telling you again. The bet is 400, the same as it’s been the last six hands. Stop trying to raise 200. Stop asking me who bet what when the chips are right in front of them. Just… just stop.

Quality of Hands: One low pair in four hours. But plenty of A-J, A-10, K-10, K-Q etc. I had A-K once but everyone folded my pre-flop raise. I think I was neither lucky nor unlucky with starting cards.

Tonight: ????

Update: We came in fourth place for $79. The drunken wrecks apparently self-destructed soon after I left. I’m happy with fourth place. How should I split the pot with my replacement? 50-50? Should he take it all because he was a full replacement for me with no preconditions? Do I get it all because it was still “my” stack? I offered to refund his entry fee of $25. That feels about right to me. Getting from 10th to 4th with an above average stack and a few seriously inebriated players at the table deserves something, but not too much. For purposes of tracking my wins and losses I’m going to count the full $79.

Tonight: $54
Running Total: $529

Links o’ Interest

Ninja cat does it the hard way

The Princess Bride continues to impress. Trivia about The Princess Bride

Heavy Metal bandname flowchart

Safe sex fail

World’s worst firemen

Terrible pre-med student

I’m an idiot

Now that is irony

Winter Valentine

Most embarrassing book

How to steal a car with 3 drink cans

Russian knife roulette fail

Some sweatshop perspective. Over the last ten years I’ve shifted from the liberal “Sweatshops are evil” viewpoint all the way over to the economics “Sweatshops are awesome” perspective.

Africa’s size in perspective

How studying Islam led to atheism

Map of the Bush years

The MIT Blackjack’s team view of the financial crisis

Debt-to-GDP Ratio

Slow-motion video of a water drop falling into sand

So much for the 4th Amendment.

Confrontation at the Airport

Mrs. Muttrox is away for the weekend. The family drove to the airport to drop her off. Arriving there, I pulled alongside the curb near a walkway to let out Mrs. Muttrox. She said goodbye to the children. We both got out, exchanged hugs and kisses and well wishes. She walked to her terminal and I got back in the car.

As I got ready to pull out I saw one of the bicycle police coming down the curb. I waited for him to pass so I could pull out, giving him a little nod as he passed. To my surprise he came over to my car and started yelling at me.

“There’s not an airport in the world that you can do this at! You are parked in front of a yellow line! There is a sign in front of you and a sign in back of you that say active loading only! Why do you think you can just sit here waiting to pick someone up!?”
“What?”
“This is an active loading zone only, you cannot wait for your passenger!”
“I’m very sorry, I thought dropping someone off meant the same as active loading. It doesn’t?”
“You were not dropping someone off, you were waiting!”
“I just dropped my wife off ten seconds ago. She just walked into the terminal.”
“I have this book of tickets and it isn’t for fun. This is against the law, you did not drop someone off!”
“I just did!” (I’m starting to get worked up) “I just pulled up and dropped her off and now I’m leaving!”
The policeman yells to himself about people or something and walks to the back of the van. I am getting ready to point out that (a) I was outside of the van and pickups don’t do that (b) he can call the airline and see her ticket (c) he can ask my kids in the back of the van why we came to the airport (d) he can call Mrs. Muttrox’s phone and ask her, etc, but he keeps on going and walks down the line yelling to himself.

I pull out. Or rather try to, between the stress of arguing with the cop and the kids yelling at me wanting to know if I’m going to jail I forget to release the parking brake and can’t figure out why I’m not moving for a good fifteen seconds, during which I am more stressed because I am convinced the cop is going to see me sitting there and come back for Round 2.

I love the airport.

Selling the Old Car

After buying my new car, I put the old one up for sale. It took me five months to sell it. This is a car in good shape with extremely low mileage. But the buyers just aren’t there. I ended up selling it for a good thousand bucks below what I think it’s worth. When the buyers offered the price I checked with Mrs. Muttrox. Before I could even open my mouth she said, “Take the offer. Whatever it is, take it.” She was right, after five months it was time to just get rid of it.

But there’s good news. We’re blowing the money on a new hot tub. Oh, that’s gonna be so awesome!

Links o’ Interest

People who Deserve It

Decline

Buy our seats

Of course Tintin is gay.

E-bayers are not so bright

How do I get out of this one?

I’d be a little nervous also.

The Seed (pleasant video)

The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly (Sweatshirt)

Funny bumper stickers

Lies of omission

Best bet loser

New Media Douchebags explained

The Recently Deflowered Girl

Uncle Sam’s Credit Score

Map of Springfield

An open letter from The Watchmen movie producer

Heck of a job Bushie.

2008: The Year in Pictures (New York Times) and The Boston Globe (Parts 1, 2, and 3), the 12 most embarrassing photos (Cracked).

Best financial jokes of 2008

The top 25 songs of 2008, all at once
Modern Nomad

Contractors do not understand revision clouds

I must train my next dog to do this

Enter Sandman on kazoo

On Deep Throat’s death and a different perspective on Watergate

Poker Update

The first game of 2009 started off rather poorly. No cards. Nothing to play. So I didn’t. I called the blinds once or twice, went 2 for 4 on bluffs, but basically did nothing. My stack got whittled down.

With rebuy time running out, I chose to commit stack suicide with K-6. I knew the other guy had me beat but I wanted to rebuy and start the next hour with a full stack. Things changed a little. I limped in the big blind with 8-10. The flop was 8-10-Q, I doubled up. Suddenly I had some money. I still couldn’t get many cards, but I got just enough, because I was making great reads. My first pair of the night was 8-8, on a flop with two overcards I called an all-in bet. I was right, he had nothing.

With A-x, the flop came A-J-x. Another person went all-in with a short stack. I figured him for the J and called it. I was right, but another jack came out. Oh well.

Eh, I can’t remember many more hands. I went up, I went down, I went up again, I went down again. I ended up being the bubbly boy at 3rd place.

I was pleased with my play. My only bad tendency was not bluffing more in the late stages. Terrible cards the whole night, but I think I played them just right. Every time I went to a showdown I had the best hand, every time I had good cards I was able to get money out of them, etc. I can’t be disapointed with that. Getting reads right will pay off big in the long run.

Tonight: -$40
Running Total: $475

Plotholes in Dumb Comedies

How can anyone get upset at a plothole in a stupid comedy? I don’t know how I do it, but I do it.

Old School:

  • The first big party is a Thursday, but in the great scene where we see Frank the Tank coming back, Frank says that he has a busy Saturday ahead of him.
  • Oh, that lousy Dean! Their frat got an average score of 84% on their test. But the Dean brings in the score of dead Blue (the old guy), of course it’s a 0%, and the new average score is now 58%! Uh-oh! That math doesn’t work though. It comes close if the frat only had two people, but we can see there are twelve or so. Averaging in another person score of 0% would bring it to 77% or so. Perhaps this was a sophisticated meta-test — if they could figure out how impossible the Dean’s claim is, they would have demonstrated the math skills they needed to pass the test.

Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story (This one really bugged me.)

  • Before the big match, the bad guys make Vince an offer. For $100,000, sign over his gym to the bad guys. Vince believes his team has no hope of winning. He seems like he’s going to sign it. Flash forward to the next day. Vince is getting drunk. In a bar. His team has been abandoned. They have no strategy, no plan, no hope. They consider forfeiting. Vince watches the pre-game on TV, where the announcers wonder if there will be a match at all. In a candid encounter with Lance Armstrong he says he’s not going to play. Lance shames him into changing his mind.

    Meanwhile, as Vince is on his way over, his team has forfeited. They don’t have enough players. It’s too late, it’s all over. Except one of his players finds a loophole – they can appeal to the judges. Fortunately for them Chuck Norris casts the tiebreaking vote and they are allowed to play. Yay! Vince arrives in time. He plays. He is knocked out instantly.

    Of course his team goes on to win. The bad guys bring out the contract to show how Vince gave up his gym. And now, finally, the part that gets me.

    Vince reveals that yes, he did sign the contract. But, he took the $100,000 and placed on his team to win at 50-1 odds. He now has $5,000,000 and can buy the bad guys chain of gyms, ha!

    When did he place this bet!? Before he got wasted? While his team waited for him to develop a strategy? Before it took an intervention by Lance Armstrong to make him decide to play? Could it have been after that, while his team was busy forfeiting due to his absence and only got to play due to a freak knowledge of the rules and the deux machina cameo of Chuck Norris? Before he played horribly and got knocked out within 10 seconds!? When did he make this bet, and how do any of his other actions correspond to this bet! (And, by the way, how would the odds be 50-1? Even Buster Douglas was only 45-1, and Vince’s team had convincingly beaten a wide variety of opponents.) Just an infuriating lack of consistency, a ridiculous plot hole that didn’t even add anything to the plot.

Wildcard Weekend Postscript

Cleary I am terrible at NFL predictions. One out of four, yeesh.

Falcons/Cardinals: Turnovers. And poor defense by Atlanta in the second half. With the game on the line, you have them at 3rd and 16, how do you let someone catch a pass with no one even around them? Ridiculous.

Colts/Chargers: I predicted this one wrong and I’m glad I did. I hate the Colts. I hate everything about them, from their holier-than-thou coach to their shill-anything-for-a-buck-buck-buck chicken-dancing quarterback to their marginally retarded waterboy. (Okay, I made that last one up.) And Phillip Rivers has been a stalwart on my fantasy team, so even though I don’t like Norv Turner and LT is a huge whiner, I’m still glad they won.

Which they shouldn’t have. again, stupid interceptions. And the Colts touchdown in the 3rd quarter? For those who didn’t see it, let me set the stage. All game, the Chargers and Colts are messing with each other at the line. The Chargers shift players around trying to confuse the chicken, the chicken sqwuaks at his team to counter it until the play clock gets to 1. The Colts run a lot of no-huddle to mess with the Chargers.

In the second half, the Colts continue to no-huddle. But now they don’t always go to 1, they snap it earlier. One one play, the Chargers are in the middle of trying to substitute as the Colts are getting ready to snap. The Chargers safety, Cromate, is looking at his sideline figuring out what he’s supposed to be doing. He has no idea that the Colts have lined up, he never sees the play start, and only wakes up when his man is ten yards beyond him and every other Charger and catching the ball for the easy touchdown. C’mon!

John Madden said of LT: “He’s just sitting on the sidelines, spectating!” I have already incorporated the word spectate into my everyday vocabulary.

Ravens/Dolphins: Holy cow, that’s a lot of turnovers. You can wildcat until the cows come home, but it won’t matter when you keep giving the ball away.

Eagles/Vikings: Eh, who cares.

None of these four winners looked very good — I suppose the Chargers played the best of them.

Return from Exile

I’ve spent the last year and a half in exile. I speak of work. With our company bursting at the seams, many people have had to move locations away from their normal groups. My group was the right size to get the short straw. In the summer of 2007 we were moved to a space that was… not so great. We call it the extension trailer.

What was the worst part about it? The lack of sound insulation. The bathrooms were right across from the cubicles of a couple of girls. They could hear most everything that went on, even with the fan on. We found ourselves with a dilemma. On the one hand, people have to able to go the bathroom. The next one is in another building, a fair sized walk and two security swipes. On the other hand, c’mon, it’s kinda gross to listen to, no one should need to put up with that. With the wisdom of Solomon, the compromise was made. Doing Number One locally is allright. For Number Two you gotta walk to another building.

After 18 months we were just moved back to the same floor as the rest of my department. There are lots of good things about rejoining the gang, but the best thing is finally being able to do my business without a five-minute walk to the proper facilities. 2009’s gonna be a good year!

Playoff Predictions (Wildcard Weekend)

Indianapolis Colts vs San Diego Chargers:
The Colts started weak this year. Somewhere around Week 5 they have become the old Colts, the ones who are virtually unstoppable. They are 12-4 vs. San Diego’s 8-8, they are clearly the better team. The Chargers have a bad habit of poor coaching and playing in the playoffs also.
Winner: Indianapolis Colts

Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins:
Can the gimmick offense of the Dolphins beat the solid unspectacular Ravens? I don’t think so. With two weeks to rest and scout them, the Ravens defense will be ready. Miami has played a good season, but I think it ends now.
Winner: Baltimore Ravens

Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals:
The Cardinals have improved a lot since last year. And they’ve been able to beat their own division. But let’s get real. They aren’t a good team. Atlanta is. End of story.
Winner: Atlanta Falcons

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Minnesota Vikings:
I haven’t the vaguest. I’ll go with the home team.
Winner: Minnesota Vikings

Overall prediction (aka, how good do I feel about my picks): I think I’ll get Colts and Falcons right, and one of the other two randomly. I see a 3-1.

Blog News

  1. New Links in the blogroll. They’re all by people I know, arranged in order of how long I’ve known them.
    • Katherine in Japan. My cousins blog. She is spending a couple years teaching in Japan. You may have to register to see it.
    • My Zen Arcade. More like mine – just an old pal babbling about whatever is on his mind. Frequently updated.
    • Montyland. Monty is another high school pal of mine. He doesn’t post much, but I like what he does.
    • Brand Ng. A not-so-old and not-so-new friend. He writes about the power of branding and other smart-type things.
    • The Dad Show. The author is a newer friend who hardly ever posts, but I like his writing. Maybe if we add in some comments he’ll be motivated to add more…
  2. I updated the theme slightly, mostly adding another 200 pixels in the content area. That puts it over 800 pixels total, which was the old standard. I am assuming all my readers are okay with this. If it isn’t displaying properly, let me know.

    This is how it begins. Add a few pixels, modify the credits in the footer, change the way followed links display (to be done, can’t distinguish normal bold from link bold)… this is how I got in trouble with the last theme. It got to a point where I had hacked it so much I couldn’t edit it. Also, I can change out the background image… any nominations?

  3. During the upgrade, quotes and apostrophes from old posts and comments got translated into weird special character triplets. I’m gradually cleaning them up. If you notice any, feel free to drop me a line.
  4. Some images from old posts don’t appear correctly all the time — if old posts don’t have images, please let me know.