Three weeks ago, I wrote this:
This will not go well for anyone. The GOP will not fund the government or raise the debt-ceiling without concessions from Biden and the Democrats. The Republicans can’t seem to make policy when they are in charge, instead they wait until they are in the minority then put a gun to the head of the Democrats. The problem for them is, they lose every time. The country saw enough of this under Clinton and Obama. The Democrats will not give an inch, they will offer zero concessions, and dare the GOP to shut the country down. Which the GOP will, then they will eventually fold, and we will back where we started, but with yet more damage done.
It was an easy prediction to make, and it has come true. The White House and the Democratic Party has been explicit. They aren’t offering any concessions, they aren’t just holding to a hard position. They are refusing to even negotiate entirely.
And indeed, the GOP will fold. Their position is obviously wrong on the merits, hypocritical, nonsensical, and unconstitutional. But given that none of those things matter much to the crazy wing of the GOP pushing this, it is more important that it is a political loser. The consequences of shutting down the government will be large, they will get bigger, and they will be visible to ordinary citizens. Struggle as they will, the GOP will be unable to pin any blame for the consequences on the Democrats.
The questions remaining are:
- How much pain and damage will be caused before the GOP folds?
- Will the White House even try particularly hard to mitigate the pain and damage, or will they simply let the consequences unfold.
- How will the GOP spin the narrative when they lose? What ridiculously untrue story will they tell?
- Will this humiliating loss finally teach the GOP their lesson, and stop them from doing it again?
2 thoughts on “Democrats on the Debt Ceiling: Your Problem, GOP”
It is sad how the obvious things are not understood. An immense amount of bad faith reasoning.
It does seem as if the GOP will fold even faster than I thought. I assumed they would actually go through with it, but it is looking as if they will concede before that. Or at least McCarthy and leadership will, hopefully the crazies won’t somehow punch above their weight and sink any deal.
I wrote this on FB this morning:
It seems the obvious needs to be stated as it relates to the US debt ceiling. Consider this:
1) Has anybody gotten their credit card company to forgive your balance by promising to spend less in the future?
2) Is cutting your spending the ONLY way to balance a budget. Seems to me raising your income can help with this as well.
I am not as pessimistic about this as you are. The Dems are absolutely correct to project that they will not ‘negotiate’. They hold all the cards in this game. McCarthy is bluffing. OTOH, there are talks going on both behind the scenes and publicly (yesterday at the WH) to figure out how to wiggle out of this with everyone saving face and without any real spending cuts that even the GOP cannot agree on anyway. I cannot say what accounting tricks will be used to accomplish this, but it will likely involve the large amount of previously allocated but unspent money that is still out there.