According to the national polls this has been a close race, only slightly in Obama’s favor. You should be wondering how much the national poll matters. What does the situation look like if you go to each state and see where it’s electoral votes are polling and add it all up?

Ladies and Gentlemen, one of the best election sites out there, www.fivethirtyeight.com. You can look that up and play with all kinds of different possibilities to your hearts content. A dream tool for the amateur politnik.

Oh, by the way? Current projections are Obama 310, McCain 227. The race isn’t nearly as close as you think.

What do y’all think?

I guess my overall take is that it reflects very poorly on McCain. McCain made a horrible pick, and made it without thinking about it or caring about the consequences. This is not a good sign for someone who’s campaign is based on judgment.

Another blogger used this analogy. Both Obama and McCain gambled. Obama played poker. He figured out his odds, weighed the circumstances, and made a move. It might not work, but it’s the best play he can make. McCain played craps, he just rolled the dice and hoped things would work out. Which seems like a better character trait?

Before I dive back into poker n’ politics, I wanted to thank all the well-wishers. It’s appreciated.

I played an error-free game.

That feels so good to say. I’ll say it again, because I’ve never been able to say it before. I played an error-free game. I can’t think of one play that was a mistake.

In the first two hours, I only showed my cards twice. Every other time I folded, or bet big enough to push other people off the hand. That was the big difference. Instead of value-betting non-premium hands I was putting in large bets and getting other people out of the way so I never had to see if my non-premium hands (low and middle pairs, K-J suited, etc.) would hold up. The only two times I showed my hand were both chops with the same person. So two hours in, no one had seen me lose.

When we down to five people, I had a bad luck run. There three coin flip hands in a row (2 overcards vs. a pair) and I lost all three. That’s unfortunate. I was right to be in the hand each time though. I fought back. With three players, I checked the option with 9-3. The flop was K-9-5. With middle pair I made a good-sized bet. He put me all in. It wasn’t much of a decision, a fold would have crippled me and I was getting 3-1 on my money. He had 9-6, his hand held up and I finished in 3rd.

Never been so pleased with my own performance to finish in third. This was my best poker playing since I started blogging it.

Running Total: $116 (three winning weeks in a row…)

Is that 90% number true? Is it more than you would expect – after all, many laws are uncontroversial. I hate numbers without context. Here’s some context.

The claim is true. According to Congressional Quarterly’s Voting Studies, in 2007 McCain voted in line with the president’s position 95 percent of the time – the highest percentage rate for McCain since Bush took office – and voted in line with his party 90 percent of the time. However [Why did they feel the need to put "However" in here? It doesn't rebut anything. Can't anyone just present facts?], McCain’s support of President Bush’s position has been as low as 77 percent (in 2005), and his support for his party’s position has been as low as 67 percent (2001).

In contrast,

When doing so, they may wish to consider that Obama’s votes were in line with the president’s position 40 percent of the time in 2007. That shouldn’t be terribly surprising. Even the Senate’s Democratic leader, Harry Reid of Nevada, voted with Bush 39 percent of the time last year, according to the way Congressional Quarterly rates the votes.

That’s an enormous difference. I thought it would be an empty soundbite that dissappeared under scrutiny. It didn’t.

The Final Days

[Bush] can flash anger over what he considers unfounded criticism or at something on his schedule he does not like, but he does not wrestle with his inner demons, at least not out loud. “He doesn’t second-guess himself,” Jim Francis, a longtime friend from Texas, told me. “I second-guess myself all the time — ‘Maybe I shouldn’t have done this or that.’ He just doesn’t have that in him. I have never seen him do that….”

That is not a good thing.