Super Bowl Bets

I love being in Las Vegas! Lots of action riding tonight. Here are the bets I have riding on today’s game.

  • Pats to win (straight up moneyline)
  • Pats to have five or less penalties
  • The under (54 points)
  • Eli will pass for less than 303 yards
  • More second half points than first half points. I like this one.
  • The last score will not be a touchdown

The best bets are the crazy ones!

  • Ben Jarvis Green Ellis will have more rushing yards than LeBron James has points+rebounds+steals. I think I took the wrong side of this one.
  • Victor Cruz and Aaron Hernandez will have more total passing yards than points scored in the Duke Miami game. Love it!

Mrs. Muttrox is also betting the Pats win by 8 or more and that the Pats score first. I have several squares in a $10 game, and we are introducing the kids to it tonight with a ten-cent version. This is wasted money for me, as I am a statistical freak in squares, having never one a dime despite buying 10-15% of squares in ~20 different games.

What’s that? What is Muttrox’s prediction. I refuse to make one!

Poker Update

I always win at the casino. Despite my lackluster success the last couple years in home games, I never lose for real money in a real setting. Today was a personal best. Playing an hour and half at 1-3 no limit, I ended up $525. Oh yeah, baby!

Why do I win in the ‘real’ world? I think it’s because I play conservative. I just don’t play bad hands. I’ll stare into space for as long as it takes to get starting hands. I bluff rarely, and only I’ve already established a table image as a very tight player.

Tonight I played well, and I got lucky. The second hand I had pocket kings, which led to $80 profit. Twenty minutes later my suited A-9 caught the nut flush on the river.

It was time to leave. The Celtics* game had just ended. I would play one or more two hands and call it a night. One fellow who liked to straddle did it again. I had taken him three out of four big hands already. I figured I’d try a bluff, and raised it up even with a lousy 10-2 of hearts. He called. Dang! Fortunately the flop was three hearts. He had flopped a set, and we were soon all in against each other. That one hand made me over $300.

Ah. Feels good!

* I couldn’t bet on the Celtics. It turns out that Caesar’s Palace actually owns a piece of the Celtics, so can’t take action. Just as well, they won but didn’t cover the spread.

Muttrox on the GOP Candidates

Mitt Romney: Ruled as a centrist when he was governor of Massachusetts. Brings a great deal of good private sector experience. Not as slavish to the interests of the rich as the others. He has been socially right-wing for a long time, the question is always, is he truthful? There is a suspicion that if elected, he would be much more like Obama than his rhetoric suggests. All in all, a reasonably moderate candidate.

Ron Paul: Great strengths, great weaknesses. You have to admire his consistent world view. His approach to foreign policy and civil rights is so self-evidently correct that other candidates don’t know to respond to it. An enemy of the system, constantly being undercut by the mainstream media. He also has great weaknesses. He would seek to undo large swaths of the social nets built up since FDR, his knowledge of economics is laughable, and his sense of ideological purity is not always a good thing. A perfect kind of primary candidate to push the others towards his views, but you probably don’t want him as president.

Gingrich, Santorum, Perry, Cain, Bachmann: Nuts. Stark raving mad, barely distinguishable from each other. The idea that any of these lunatics might get near the Oval Office should be terrifying to any informed citizen. And even among this pack of disasters, you have to single out Gingrich. Gingrich began and is the embodiment of everything we hate about politics – the rise of partisanship over policy, the win at any costs mentality over get something done. He’s a terrible terrible man, personally and professionally.

How the GOP candiates favor the rich

A truly excellent post lays out the impact of the candidate’s tax plans to various income levels. It is not a surprise they all favor the rich. It may surprise some readers to see that Romney’s is the least unequal, keeping the distribution more or less like today. One more illustration that all the candidates except Romney and Paul are exactly the GOP stereotype: dishonest class warriors for the rich.

GOP Tax Plans

I’ve Hit the Meeting Tipping Point

The number of meetings at work have gotten way out of control. In a regular work day, I get invited to approximately 1.25 workdays worth of meetings. Somewhere we hit the tipping point.

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I am somewhat in the minority in believing that most meetings I am at are not like the above, they are actually fairly effective. It’s the amount of them that’s troubling. Imagine everyone’s time is 50% booked. If I want to discuss something with 3 other people, any given time slot is 94% likely to be booked. I could talk to people serially, but that is less efficient. So I set up a quick meeting. Fine. Then the four of us are all booked at 51%, and it’s now at 96% to book all four of us, making it a little harder for the next person who needs to talk to one of us. The only way for them to make sure they can talk with us is to set up time with us. And so it goes. Because informal time is rarer, the only way to collaborate (and we’re very collaborative) is through formal meetings. Which in turn reduces the informal meetings (which, by the way, are often more effective than the formal ones), which reinforces the vicious circle.

Right now, my average week is around 80% booked. I think I average six hours of meetings a day. The remaining hours I am frantically trying to either get all the things done that are outcomes of those meetings, tracking people down for followups, or staring emptily into space while my brain slowly recharges. The only time to get things done is the early morning, before others get in. It is very hard to find time to step back and think hard about the big strategic issues I am being paid to deal with.

It’s similar of traffic patterns. Highways can handle a certain amount of traffic gracefully. After that, there is a steep decline. Adding 5% more vehicles results in a 20% decrease in speed. Once this tipping point has been hit it is very difficult to reverse it. This is why many cities put in controlled timing lights at the entrance ramps. You might have to wait another minute or two to get on, but because the speed of the highway is kept high, you save more time than you lose. I don’t see an analogy to timing lights in my workplace. Meetings are clearly out of hand. Everyone knows it. But once it has hit that point, it is very difficult to reverse.

Watching the News

We decided that our kids are old enough to learn about the grownup world. We recorded the evening news and sat down with them to watch it. Here are some of the stories that day:

  • Iowa Caucus voting underway (lots of talk, no one knows anything of course)
  • Rookie cop catches the person setting fires (a long story of how the tip came in involving families and felons, and none of us could understand it, or why we should care.)
  • Record cold, Florida oranges are in trouble
  • Dead body found on one Queen Elizabeth’s many houses. (Clearly nothing to do with the royal family, but reported as if they are serial murders.)
  • Dow Jones started the year up 200 points. (This is explained by a reference to “The January Effect”, with no other explanation.)
  • New hybrid shark discovered (predictably dubbed “SuperShark”)
  • Veterans helping to rebuild bad Baltimore neightborhoods (nothing bad to say, it’s great)

We were surprised by how much the boys enjoyed it. The 8-year old had lots of questions about politics. Such as, “Dad, why did you say half of the Republicans are nutjobs?”

Then we asked the 6-year old what he thought. “The news is great!” Really? How come? “It’s all fires and big sharks!”

Post Holiday Awkwardness

It was the first day back at work after the break. I was walking down the hall behind a female friend. Let’s call her Alice. Another co-worker leaned out from her office, after we had passed.

Her: Jennifer, you look great!
[Jennifer is not around, so no one replies.]
Her: Hey, Jennifer! Happy New Years! Did you lose weight, you look great!
Me (looking back): That’s not Jennifer. That’s Alice.
Her: That’s Alice? Shit, she looks terrible!

Most Frustrating Product of 2011: The Oddly Not-Quite Right Water Dispenser

asdf

You can’t see it in this picture, but the water switch is an on/off switch. This machine has the ability to give you:

  • Ice only
  • Ice and Water (which is 80% ice)

It cannot give you water only. This is because there is no switch to control the ice, only the water. Why not? How hard could it have been to add an on/off switch for the ice. For that matter, if you can only have one on/off switch, why would you put it on the water controls? There are a few oddballs who like their cup of ice only, but there are certainly far more people who like a cup of water only. The makers of this product clearly had the ability to make this work the way most people woudl want it, but for some strange reason, deliberately chose not to. Congratulations Scotsman, you made the most-frustratingly-so-close-to-being-a-good-product-and-yet-royally-sucking-of-the-year. Hoorah.

“Retrieve password” is not the same as “Reset password”

Dear Apple (and many others),

When you tell me to click here to “retrieve my password”, why won’t you let me simply retrieve my password!? Instead, you make me change it. I don’t want to change it. I have a good password that meets all your stupid criteria, I like it. My account has not been hacked. I answered your security questions – which I imagine are designed to establish that my account has not been hacked and it is indeed Muttrox at the other end. So why do should I need to change it? Stop making me change it!! And if I have to change it, tell me that up front! Don’t tell me I need to click here to be reminded of my password, and then get in a system where that password can never be used. Don’t lie to me.

Thank you.

Rick Santorum is Pathetic

These are the funniest couple of paragraphs I’ve read in some time:

Rick Santorum, who has seen his support rise sharply in several recent Iowa polls, was mobbed by reporters during an afternoon stop at a Buffalo Wild Wings Grill and Bar in Ames, where patrons were gathered to watch Iowa State battle Rutgers in the Pinstripe Bowl.

Despite a tiny turnout of only a few supporters and some angry yells of “sit down” and “we’re trying to watch football,” Mr. Santorum said he was encouraged by the new energy evidenced by the media scrum that now follows him.

Time to give up Rick. It’s over.

Links o’ Interest

Deconstructing that great Beatles chord

Milton Berle vs Warldorf and Statler. Milton loses.

Christmas vandalism

The most interesting economic graphs of the year.

Turkey epiphany

Accurate tattoo

Fantastic epilogue to The Breakfast Club.

Tollbooth speed demon

Cheap toy

Correlation vs Causation

Accidental Optical Illusion

Community and Beetlejuice. When the show seems stupidest, the clever stuff has moved to the background.

The end of the rainbow

Funny shopping prank

Fun with stock photos

Job interview

The Worst Man Ever? Not so easy to figure out.

Being Poor

Being Pooris still one of the most powerful reads on the internet.

Some excerpts:

Being poor is hoping the toothache goes away.

Being poor is knowing your kid goes to friends’ houses but never has friends over to yours.

Being poor is going to the restroom before you get in the school lunch line so your friends will be ahead of you and won’t hear you say “I get free lunch” when you get to the cashier.

Being poor is people angry at you just for walking around in the mall.

Being poor is not taking the job because you can’t find someone you trust to watch your kids.

Being poor is a $200 paycheck advance from a company that takes $250 when the paycheck comes in.

Being poor is knowing where the shelter is.

More Sports Guy Idiocy

His innumeracy marches on. You don’t need any context. Just review the math.

Theory 1: Probability 40%
Theory 2: Probability 1%
Theory 3: Probability 50%
Theory 4: Probability 60%
Theory 5: Probability 35%
Theory 6: Probability 10%
Theory 7: Probability 80%
Theory 8: Probability 80%
Theory 9: Probability 5%

Adding up to a total probability of 361%. Bravo.

Useless Signage

asdf

Companion Care Restroom!? What on earth does that mean? I wonder if it got the ridiculous name because of political correctness when referring to a family, or some kind of bad translation. Either way, it’s absurd. This is a bathroom. For a family. Family restroom. Done.

Links o’ Interest

Christmas spirit

Drawing a spiral portrait. Wow.

Occupy Wall Street fail

How did we get seven billion humans on earth anyways (estimated to have happened Oct 31, 2011)?

Ah, Vegas

Your band sucks

I thought that was metaphorical

The number seven responds to the rumors

A mean joke

Great Halloween costume

Mug shot of the week – read all the way to the end

European flags

What the doctors said

Tea Party vs Occupy Wall Street. Good stats (particularly regarding “get a job!”)

Very misinformed

I don’t know much about Penn State. I’ve always liked and admired Joe Paterno. Yet, I find myself agreeing with this. Moral outrage, that’s what missing.

Harry Potter messes up

Heartwarming? Sad?

12 kinds of stock photos

Occupy Wall Street and Voting

I wonder what the voting participation rate is among the Occupy Wall Street crowd. Do you think it’s higher or lower than comparable cohorts?

After all, one answer to OWS is – why don’t you go out an elect candidates who will support your interests? If you want to increase corporate taxes (for example), why don’t you elect someone who will? Why don’t you run for office yourself? Wouldn’t all this be more effective than sleeping in the park?

Maybe it would, maybe it wouldn’t. Many of them would claim that the democratic process is so broken that it’s not worth it. Look at the marginalization of Dennis Kuchinik, Ron Paul, Howard Dean, etc. Any views not solidly in the mainstream are ignored. You cannot run for or hold office without corporate support and the quid pro quo that entails. You can’t fight the system.

And yet, I think for many that is an excuse. My guess is that the OWS people by and large choose to avoid the democratic system. I wonder if I’m right?

I agree with this blogger, who thinks that compulsory voting would be the best thing for OWS. Along the same line of thought, National Voting Day and the National Popular Vote movement. Or indeed any kind of systemic reform that makes it easier for citizens, (particular poor ones) to vote, or makes their votes worth more than they are today. It is no accident that the GOP so stridently objects to the census using statistical measures, and fights so hard to make voting difficult.